{"id":274,"date":"2020-10-14T00:18:16","date_gmt":"2020-10-14T00:18:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marshallbrain.com\/wordpress\/?page_id=274"},"modified":"2020-10-14T00:25:22","modified_gmt":"2020-10-14T00:25:22","slug":"robotic-faq","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/marshallbrain.com\/robotic-faq","title":{"rendered":"Robotic Nation FAQ"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by Marshall Brain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Question 1 – Why did you write these articles? What is your goal?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My goal is very simple. I firmly believe that the rapid evolution of computer technology (as described in Robotic Nation<\/a>) will bring us smart robots starting in a 2030 time frame. These robots will take over approximately 50% of the jobs in the U.S. economy over the course of just a decade or two. Something on the order of 50 million people will be unemployed. See Robotic Nation<\/a> for details.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The economy may adjust and invent new jobs for those 50 million unemployed workers, but it will not do so instantaneously. What we will have is a period of economic turmoil. All of those unemployed workers will be in a very bad spot. The economy as a whole will suffer from this turmoil and the downward economic spiral it causes. No one will benefit when this happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are intelligent people living in a modern, high-tech society. Robots are inevitable. Instead of letting this robotic revolution happen uncontrollably and then reacting to the chaos that ensues, what I am proposing is that we look at the problem rationally and design a systematic solution. See Robotic Freedom<\/a> for possible solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Question 2 – You are suggesting that the switchover to robots will happen quickly, over the course of just 20 to 30 years. Why do you think it will happen so fast?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is something to keep in mind. When Henry Ford introduced the Model T, there were essentially no cars on the road. 10 years later, his company alone was producing 2 million cars a year. And that was a century ago. There was no WWW in 1993. Version 1.0 of the first Web browser was introduced in November, 1993. Yet today, the Web is so pervasive that you are reading this article. What you are doing at this moment was impossible just 10 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once the fundamentals of robotic intelligence are figured out, vision being the key limiter right now, robots will spread with startling speed. They will be a commodity, just like cell phones or desktop computers. See this article<\/a> for a perspective on how fast robots will spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What has been holding smart robots back is CPU power and memory. That is about to change. In the 2030 to 2040 time frame we will have desktop computers with CPU power and memory equivalent to that of the human brain. See this page<\/a> fo a description of how fast things are moving right now. Once we cross over the threshold to intelligent robots, we will see a flood of robots into the workplace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have seen this phenomenon before. For decades it was predicted that computers would never beat humans at chess. And that prediction held true for a time. Chess computers could not beat human players until there was enough CPU power available. Now a desktop computer can beat most human chess players, and specialized computers can beat nearly every human player. Once enough CPU power was available, beating humans was trivial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The exact same thing will happen with robots in the job market sometime between 2030 and 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Question 3 – In the past, every technological innovation has created more jobs, not less. When (choose one, depending on the author of the email) [the horse-drawn plow was replaced by the tractor], or [the security guard was replaced by the burglar alarm], or [the factory making brooms replaced the craftsman creating brooms] or [the computer replaced human calculators] or [etc.], it improved productivity and gave everyone a higher standard of living. Why do you think that robots will create massive unemployment and other economic problems?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, human calculators or security guards or broom makers did not make up 50% of the labor force. No single technology has ever threatened half of the labor pool like autonomous robots do. The Robots that appear in a 2030 time frame will directly target 50% of the labor force. That’s one difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, the “computer industry”, the “burglar alarm industry”, the “broom factory”, etc. all created lots of new jobs for the displaced workers to fill. The robotic nation will not work that way. As described in Robots in 2015<\/a>, the robotic industry will displace tens of millions of workers but will employ very few of them. Robots will build and repair the new robots, not people. That’s a second difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think about the industrial revolution. In the industrial revolution we created tools. People, being the only intelligent species around, were hired to operate the tools, creating jobs. In the robotic revolution, where computers have the power of multiple human brains<\/a>, we are instead talking about creating a second intelligent species. This new species directly competes with humans for jobs. As time passes, this new species gets better and better, cheaper and cheaper. So the new species takes more and more jobs. Since, in our current economy, no human can survive unless he\/she has a job, this new species creates a very bad scenario for humans unless we change the economy<\/a>. That’s the third difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fourth difference is a structural change in our economy. In the past, increases in productivity have meant higher wages and reduced hours for workers. Today, worker wages are stagnant. Most of the money from productivity improvements flows to the wealthy, creating a gigantic Concentration of wealth<\/a>. Robots will turbocharge the concentration of wealth and leave tens of millions of workers in poverty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Significant changes in the economy usually work themselves out in the long run, but in the short run they can be devastating. One example is the Great Depression. Long term we survived, but ask anyone who went through it to describe the tremendously bad short term effects. Read The Grapes of Wrath<\/a> to get another perspective. The robotic revolution will cause tremendous economic upheaval. Instead of letting chaos rain down upon us, we should develop a systematic solution to the problem now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Question 4 – There is absolutely no evidence for what you are writing about. You have no economic foundation for your proposals. Why are you writing such gibberish?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is significant support for what I am discussing. Simply go to Google and type in “jobless recovery” as the search term on either the Web or the News side. Here’s a collection of articles:<\/p>\n\n\n\n