{"id":289,"date":"2020-10-14T00:37:18","date_gmt":"2020-10-14T00:37:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marshallbrain.com\/wordpress\/?page_id=289"},"modified":"2020-10-14T00:37:18","modified_gmt":"2020-10-14T00:37:18","slug":"basic-income","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/marshallbrain.com\/basic-income","title":{"rendered":"Basic Income: Why and How Should We Build a Basic Income for Every Citizen?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
by\u00a0Marshall Brain<\/a> What are our goals as a species? This, to me, is the most important question we can ask ourselves as human beings. Another way to say it: What is the meaning of our existence as a species? We never seem to directly ask ourselves these two questions in a collective way, which is very odd. Because if we were discussing these questions openly, collectively and consistently, I believe we would live in a very different society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What kind of society do we wish to live in? This question is a direct offshoot of the previous. Specifically:<\/p>\n\n\n\n I bring up these questions and write them down here, on this particular date, because I have been asked to do an AMA on the \/r\/futurology<\/a> section of Reddit.com, on the topic of Basic Income. My thoughts around these questions will therefore focus primarily on our society’s economy today, and on the Basic Income concept. This article will also be discussing the concentration of wealth<\/a> and income inequality that is occurring today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In order to get a discussion started, and to simplify things for a moment, I would ask you to entertain the following thought experiment. Let’s think for a moment about a highly simplified society that has the following features:<\/p>\n\n\n\n That’s the setup. As I said, this is a highly simplified society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here’s the first question: How many jobs does this society need?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The great thing about this highly simplified society is that the answer is obvious: This society needs one million jobs for the one million citizens. Every single working adult needs a job. Otherwise they are unable to live their lives. Without a job , there is no way to afford the normal expenses associated with living a life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>In this society, what happens to someone who does not have a job? If he or she happens to have any savings in the bank, then living off of savings is the only alternative until the savings are exhausted. And then the person becomes homeless. Any jobless person will soon be living on the street, eating out of dumpsters, desperate for a job. If there is no food in the dumpsters, then any unemployed person dies of starvation. If the person contracts a deadly disease or gets seriously injured, the person dies from lack of access to health care. That is the nature of this society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A corollary to the previous question: What happens if only 900,000 jobs are available in this society? Then there will be 100,000 people in this society who are either homeless, or who are burning through their savings on a path to homelessness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We can ask other questions about this society as well. For example: How much money does a person in this society absolutely need to make? This question is also easy to answer. We can add up the costs for the lowest level of housing, transportation, health care, food, clothing, utilities, etc. that are viable in this society. We can cut out all \u201cluxuries\u201d like entertainment, air conditioning, etc., and there is some minimum amount of money that an adult needs to make in order to live on the very bottom edge of this society. So if the lowest cost apartment in this society is $400 per month, and the cheapest car (plus its normal insurance, fuel, maintenance and repair) is $300 per month, and the cheapest health care plan is $300 per month plus another $200 per month once you add in all the deductibles, co-pays, etc., and the cost of the cheapest food is $200 per month, and so on, we can add it all up and we can come up with the absolute lowest cost of existence in this society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Therefore, what does the minimum wage need to be at the very minimum? Again, the answer is obvious: The minimum wage needs to, at the very least, match the absolute lowest cost of existence in this society. And let’s note that if we set the minimum wage at the absolute lowest setting possible, there are people in this society who are going to routinely become homeless on a regular basis when something goes wrong. Because when people are living on the bleeding edge, at the absolute lowest cost of existence in this society, then occasionally things are going to go wrong and the person is going to run out of money. The things that can \u201cgo wrong\u201d are myriad:<\/p>\n\n\n\n A person living at the absolute lowest level of existence in this society will necessarily have no savings, and therefore will become homeless instantly in any of these cases. Sure the person could stop eating and starve to death, but most people will choose homelessness over starvation. Remember that we are talking about the absolute lowest cost of existence in this society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And here we arrive at an important question from the perspective of societal design. Do we really want to design a society where some of the adults are living on the bleeding edge of poverty like this, with the potential to become homeless at any moment? Also, do we really want or expect people in our society to live a life with zero entertainment, no access to any luxuries or fun, etc.? Probably not. What is the purpose of designing a society like that? Why not design it so that everyone in the society has a decent life at some reasonable standard of living?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Therefore, the minimum wage should really be set at some reasonable level, somewhat above the absolute lowest cost of existence in this society. The minimum wage in this society should provide even the lowest-level workers with a tolerable standard of living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>Which gets to a broader question from the societal design standpoint. Long term, what are the goals we have for the citizens in this society: Over time, do we hope to see people’s lives getting economically better in this society, or do we want them staying about the same, or actually getting worse? As a simple example of where this question can lead: Over time, do we want to see average wages rising faster than inflation so people have more spending power, or do we want their wages falling so that more people are moving toward more precarious positions? Do we want the number of working hours per week falling or rising over time? Do we want the quality of food, housing, health care, etc. that people can access rising or falling? And so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over time, some of the citizens in this society will grow too old to work. Those at the lower end of the pay scale will, necessarily, have little or no savings (unless the minimum wage has been set high enough to allow for such savings, and regulations or systems of some type have been put in place to force people to save for retirement). It is simple human nature, for many people, to spend all of the money they receive. So money must be available for saving, and regulations must compel an adequate level of saving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Given this scenario: How will the society accommodate these people who need to retire? Will it allow many of them to die of starvation? Or will the society accommodate them with some level of dignity as they retire? Will the society set the minimum wage high enough and require people to save for their own retirements? Will it require younger workers to use some of their wages to support the retired people? Something else? These same questions could be asked about the portion of the population who become disabled or so ill (e.g. cancer) that they cannot work. Should the society let these people die immediately, or accommodate them in some way?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Let’s assume that, in this hypothetical society, the average take-home pay is $X per person. That means that consumers in this society have $X * 1,000,000 in spending power if there is full employment, and this aggregate number is an important driver for the society’s economy. What happens if there is a big economic downturn for some reason and 200,000 jobs evaporate? 200,000 people will necessarily become homeless. Now the consumers only have $X * 800,000 in total spending power, which is definitely not good for the society’s economy because of the retraction. Total buying power of the population has fallen by 20%, and 200,000 people are now homeless. How does the society best deal with a situation like that? Should it watch the 200,000 people die? Should it start some sort of temporary welfare system to keep the 200,000 unemployed people alive? Should the government inject $X * 200,000 into the economy in some other way? Where should the money for the welfare system or the injection come from?<\/p>\n\n\n\n What if there is no economic downturn, but instead new technology comes along that eliminates 200,000 jobs? For example, imagine that one company develops self-driving trucks and that eliminate all of the truck driver jobs, while another company develops automated tools that eliminate many of the remaining factory jobs, and another company develops brick-laying, painting and roofing robots that eliminate quite a few construction jobs, plus another company develops a kiosk system that eliminates the jobs of many waiters and waitresses in restaurants, and so on. Now the society has a permanent loss of 200,000 jobs, with 200,000 homeless people and with more pressure on jobs from other forms of automation that are rapidly advancing. How does the society deal with this situation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n What if many of the people in the society stop worrying and caring about the design of the society? What if, at that time, 10,000 of the richest people in this society see the complacency and gain economic control of the government? These 10,000 people decide that their share of the society’s wages and wealth should increase dramatically, while the wages and wealth of the other 990,000 people should stagnate or fall to make it possible. What if, in this situation, through processes such as bribery and corruption, the society’s government turns its back on the large majority of people and instead begins catering to the wealthiest members? What if that process continues over several decades? Does the society become better or worse as a result of this transition? (Lest you think this scenario is impossible, this article<\/a> sheds light on the process)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Thinking about these wealthiest members of the society one step further, does this society benefit at all from having citizens with massive wealth? In the same way that there is a concept of a reasonable minimum wage, should there also be a concept of a reasonable maximum wage, so that the wage spectrum flattens and is more equitable to everyone in the society? As an example, imagine these two scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Scenario 1:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Scenario 2:<\/p>\n\n\n\n In both scenarios, the society’s total payroll is about the same per year. But in the second scenario, the 99% make four times more money, while the 1% is still very well off. Which scenario is better for the society as a whole? (If you believe that the $10 million number in the first scenario sounds ridiculous, that is actually normal now<\/a>. If you believe that the 100X or more difference between the top 1% and the lower 99% sounds ridiculous this article<\/a> sheds light on the growing pay gap).<\/p>\n\n\n\n That simple question – \u201cWhich scenario is better for the society as a whole?\u201d – lies at the heart of the concept of a Basic Income. When we think about and talk about a Basic Income, we are thinking about and talking about the design of our society, and how to best provide for the citizens of the society as a whole. This question is especially important in the current economic environment, where escalating automation is eliminating many jobs and threatening many others, and where the wealthy people in society have taken control of the government and are rapidly creating a plutocracy<\/a>, especially in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The United States is quite a bit larger and much more complicated than the simplified society we used in Section 1. Let’s look at some of the differences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The population of the United States, as of today, is approximately 319 million people [ref, accessed 9\/15\/2014]<\/a>. Of those people:<\/p>\n\n\n\n This means that there are, potentially, approximately 182,366,025 working-age adults in the United States today. This number is derived from the total population minus those age 65 or older, minus those age 17 or younger, minus those in college.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition, approximately 10 million working-age adults are on disability [ref]<\/a> [ref]<\/a>. That lowers the total number of working-age adults to approximately 172,366,025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Approximately 100,000,000 of these working-age adults in the United States receive varying degrees of welfare benefits from many different programs [ref]<\/a>. There are food assistance programs, housing assistance programs, medical assistance programs, direct cash payments, unemployment benefits, etc. [ref]<\/a>. For example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Among the 108,592,000 people who fit the Census Bureau\u2019s description of a means-tested benefit recipient in the fourth quarter of 2011 were 82,457,000 people in households receiving Medicaid, 49,073,000 beneficiaries of food stamps, 20,223,000 on Supplemental Security Income, 23,228,000 in the Women, Infants and Children program, 13,433,000 in public or subsidized rental housing, and 5,854,000 in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program. Also among the 108,592,000 means-tested benefit recipients counted by the Census Bureau were people getting free or reduced-price lunch or breakfast, state-administered supplemental security income and means-tested veterans pensions. The 108,592,000 people who were recipients of means-tested government programs in the fourth quarter of 2011 does not include people who received benefits from non-means-tested government programs but not from means-tested ones. That would include, for example, people who received Social Security, Medicare, unemployment, or non-means-tested veterans compensation, but did not receive benefits from a means-tested program such as food stamps or public housing. [ref<\/a>]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n In short, there are more working-age people in the United States receiving some form of welfare than there are working-age people who do not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>Another interesting fact about the United States is that a surprisingly large portion of working age adults are not working, primarily because there are too few jobs to go around. This may not be obvious, because the declared unemployment rate in the United States seems low, at consistently less than 10% over a long period of time [ref]<\/a>. The problem is that the official unemployment rate hides the huge number of working-age Americans who are no longer considered a part of the workforce. Currently, only 63% of working-age adults are actually working [ref]<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Remember back in Section 1, with the simplified society, people were not able to exit the workforce without becoming homeless. In the United States there is more of a cushion. One member of a married couple can exit the workforce, and 20-something workers who lose a job can go back to living with their parents. This article<\/a> points out that \u201cMore than a third of Americans between 18 and 31 are currently living with their parents\u201d (or in dorms).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, the concentration of wealth both in the United States and the world is increasing rapidly. This video describes the situation in the U.S.:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
September 15, 2014<\/p>\n\n\n\nIntroduction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Section 1 – A thought experiment using a simplified society<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Section 2 – Expanding our view to a real society, the United States<\/h3>\n\n\n\n