{"id":85,"date":"2020-10-11T19:02:50","date_gmt":"2020-10-11T19:02:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marshallbrain.com\/wordpress\/?page_id=85"},"modified":"2020-10-11T19:02:50","modified_gmt":"2020-10-11T19:02:50","slug":"second-intelligent-species8","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/marshallbrain.com\/second-intelligent-species8","title":{"rendered":"The Second Intelligent Species"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Chapter 8 – Perpetual vacation vs welfare dormitories<\/strong>
by Marshall Brain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While discussing these questions of unemployment, wealth concentration and the basic income for all, we should ask a second type of question as well. The arrival of robots should be an amazing time in human history. With robots doing all the work, we should in theory be able to enter an era of incredible human freedom and creativity. Instead of turmoil and massive unemployment, robots could theoretically release us from work. A significant portion of the population should be able to go on perpetual vacation and achieve true freedom for the first time in human history. This freedom would enable a period of creativity unlike anything that we have seen in the past. Is there a way to design the economy so that this level of creativity is possible?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think about the era we are about to enter. Robots will soon perform every task essential to human survival. Robots will grow, package, transport and sell all of the food we eat. Robots will build all of the housing we live in. Robots will make, transport and sell all of the clothes we wear. Robots will manufacture all consumer products, put them on the shelves and take the money that we pay for them. And so on. Robots will displace the tens of millions of employees who are doing all of this work now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our current economic system, all of these displaced workers will become unemployed. If they are not able to find new employment quickly, they will burn off their savings and they will become homeless. “If you don’t work, you don’t eat” is a core philosophy of today’s economy, and this rule could make a robotic workers extremely uncomfortable for our society. It is quite likely that, as unemployment and therefore welfare rolls swell, we will turn to things like welfare dormitories, and eventually welfare cities, where the unemployed and poor are dumped to get them out of the way. Unless something like a Basic Income occurs, “Out of sight, out of mind” may be the rule of the day. Those who have concentrated the wealth will have no desire to experience the poor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question to ask here is simple but profound. Does the economy have to work that way if robots are doing all of the work? Is there a way to eliminate this dependence on a job? Can human beings actually achieve true freedom as the robots make this freedom a possibility? Can we all go on perpetual vacation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Harry Potter and the Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Chances are that you have heard of J. K. Rowling. Even if you have not, you have heard of her work. J. K. Rowling is the author of the Harry Potter books. Her story is fascinating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time she was writing the first Harry Potter book, Rowling was a single mother. In a Publishers Weekly article published on December 21, 1998, there are two important pieces of information about Rowling:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Lacking child care and unable to take a job without it, she [Rowling] went on public assistance. In many ways, she says, it was one of the lowest points of her life.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

And:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“She found Christopher Little in 1995, in the Writers’ & Artists’ Yearbook (the UK equivalent of Literary Market Place). He was the second agent to see her book — the first had sent it back “virtually by return of post,” with a form letter. In the year that followed, three publishers declined the book on the grounds that it was too long for children.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Obviously Rowling’s original book, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, was a good book. It sold millions of copies. Her fourth book, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, had a first press run of 3.8 million copies – the largest first press run in history. Over 30 million copies of the series have been sold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When you think about it, it is a miracle that any of us ever got to read Harry Potter. Consider the fact that a book with this much potential was written by a person on welfare. Think about how many other works – music, art, literature, engineering, science, invention – have never seen the light of day because of the same sorts of social problems (or because the potential author\/artist\/inventor is working 12 hours a day scrubbing toilets in two minimum wage jobs to make ends meet). Think about the arrogance of the first three publishers who rejected the manuscript. Think about how many valuable works have never seen the light of day because of that same arrogance. Society as it is designed today wastes an unbelievable amount of human potential through mechanisms just like these.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the very least, Rowling’s story shows us that the economic theory underpinning our world contains an element of dysfunction. It should not be the case that highly creative people sitting on top of billion dollar ideas have to go on welfare (and reach “one of the lowest points” in their lives by doing so) in order to express themselves. By removing this dysfunction, we could discover millions of Rowlings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The GNU\/Linux<\/a> phenomenon specifically, and the free software movement<\/a> in general, point in the same direction. GNU\/Linux is one of the best operating systems on the planet, and it is free. It has been created by thousands of programmers who have donated their time and skills to the creation of GNU\/Linux. What if we create an economy that encourages the creation of things like GNU\/Linux? If people could make a living without being employees, we could unlock an unimaginable ocean of human creativity and human potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other parts of our economy are showing similar levels of dysfunction. For example, in the U.S. today a growing number of baby boomers are headed toward retirement age. They will all stop working and make the transition to the social security system. However, the social security system is known to be in big trouble. Estimates vary, but as early as a decade from now, social security and its partner, Medicare, could collapse due to lack of funds. These systems depend on taxation on current workers to provide the funding for retired workers. But current workers are making less, retired workers are living longer, and the number of people retiring is immense. We will find ourselves in a situation where we have no way to support the growing elderly population. As medical science finds ways for people to live longer and longer, we as a society find ourselves wishing that the elderly would actually die sooner. That is dysfunctional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The working poor represent another area of dysfunction. We have a large segment of the American population – tens of millions of people – who are playing by the rules. They are working hard. Many of them are working two or three jobs – they are some of the hardest working people in our economy. Yet they cannot make ends meet because wages are so low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have trouble raising minimum wage because of a polarized political climate. The fear of some is that an increase in the minimum wage will force employers to cut their payrolls, or put even more pressure on corporations to automate and shift jobs overseas. So we have tens of millions of minimum wage (or near minimum wage) workers employed by an economy which cannot raise their wages even though productivity is rising. At the same time, that same economy is increasing executive pay dramatically. That is dysfunctional. As discussed previously, robots will only increase the level of dysfunction in this area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a society, and as a nation, robots give us a choice. We are entering an historic era that has the potential to completely change the human condition. Yet we enter it with an economic system that is unable to spread those robotic benefits to a large portion of the population. Our economic system as it stands today stifles a great deal of creativity, has no way to deal with the elderly and is unable to significantly raise wages for the majority of its citizens. Robots allow us to remove these dysfunctional elements from the capitalistic system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stating the Goals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

How do we make the most of the robotic revolution? How do we create an economy, and a society, that works for everyone?<\/p>\n\n\n\n